Research
Research
"Out of Work, Out of the Labour Force? Attachment, Search Effort and Participation Flows" (joint with Tomas Key & Brad Speigner), January 2026 - New!
[draft] [SWP version]
We show that in the UK the transition rate from unemployment to inactivity is strongly procyclical and coincides with countercyclical changes in the composition of the unemployed toward workers with higher labor market attachment. Using UK Labour Force Survey data, we document that attachment—measured by the propensity to reduce search effort over an unemployment spell—depends primarily on whether workers enter unemployment from employment or inactivity. These differences are not explained by observable variation in search behaviour. Motivated by these facts, we develop a Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model with endogenous separations and heterogeneous attachment among the non-employed. The model implies that countercyclical separations raise average attachment during downturns, amplifying unemployment volatility by about 50 percent relative to an economy with uniformly attached unemployed workers, and helping to account for the sharp rise in unemployment at the onset of the Great Recession.
"Cyclical Unemployment Insurance and Worker-Firm Sorting", December 2025 - Submitted
[draft]
This paper studies how cyclical unemployment insurance (UI) policy affects worker–firm sorting. More generous UI may prevent low-quality matches forming, but also slow worker reallocation toward better matches. We develop a sorting model in the spirit of Lise and Robin (2017), provide new worker-level evidence consistent with its mechanisms, and calibrate the model to micro data. A one-time increase in UI improves allocative efficiency. Over the business cycle countercyclical UI strengthens recessionary cleansing, while procyclical UI stabilizes job creation and worker mobility. Overall welfare gains from UI cyclicality are modest.
"Scale and Scope: Under the Hood of Superstar Firms" (joint with Joel Kariel, Marko Melolinna, Jakob Schneebacher & Nik Wolf) - draft coming soon
"Voluntary Unemployment" (joint with Zach Haywood, Matt Nolan & Petr Sedláček) - draft coming soon
"Spatial Misallocation with Non-Constant Returns to Matching" (with Andrea Chiavari)
"Insuring Matches or Workers? Labour Market Policies in Recessions", October 2022
[manuscript]
"Heterogeneous Discounting and Unemployment", October 2021
[manuscript]
"Why is it hard to compare the economic costs of lockdown across countries?" (joint with Michael McMahon), November 2020
"The Job Ladder, Unemployment Risk, and Incomplete Markets", by A. Clymo, P. Denderski, Y. Mercan and B. Schoefer
[slides], prepared for the 5th Mannheim Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, September 2024
"Left for Dead? The French Wage Phillips Curve and the Composition of Unemployment", by F. Ciambezi
[slides], prepared for the Naples School of Economics PhD and Post-Doc Workshop, September 2023